Strait of Hormuz: oil exports top pre-war levels despite Iran's closure claims
According to Kpler and Vortexa, Middle East oil exports returned in September to a pre-war level of about 18 million barrels a day — even as attacks on tankers escalate.
Middle East oil exports exceeded pre-war levels in September, despite Iran's repeated claims to have closed the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data from Kpler and Vortexa showed this on October 5.
What the numbers say
Kpler data put the seven-day moving average at 18.3 million barrels per day as of September 30, with 14 days in September above pre-war levels; the pre-war 12-month average was about 18 million bpd. Vortexa estimated a 14-day average of 18.6 million bpd. Crude transiting Hormuz itself ran at about 13.5 million bpd, matching the pre-war baseline.
Iran's own exports collapsed
At the same time, September was the first month without any Iranian crude loadings since the war began — down from about 250,000 bpd in August. Logistics shifted too: more than 70% of the crude crossing Hormuz in August switched tankers off the coast of the UAE or Oman, and roughly 40% of crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz at all, up from 17% before the war.
Attacks are escalating
Even as volumes rise, ships crossing the strait face danger. On October 1 the Kuwait-flagged VLCC Kazimah III was hit by an unknown projectile and caught fire; on October 4 the Aframax tanker Lipsi was struck near Oman, damaging its engine room. Crews survived both incidents. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reports at least one attack a day since October 2. The maritime-security service Marisks said the recent incidents 'may not necessarily represent deliberate targeting of individually selected merchant vessels.'
