The fourth wave of Uzbek migration (2010s–present): the widening of destinations

This article continues the series on waves of Uzbek migration: earlier pieces covered the first (1917–1934), second (1940–1960) and post-independence third (1991–2010) waves. The third wave was aimed almost entirely at Russia. From the 2010s, destinations widened and a fourth stage took shape, marked by stronger state-organised legal migration. Below, this stage is set out strictly on verified sources, figures and dates.

What the fourth wave is

The essence of the fourth wave is the shift from a single destination (Russia) to many, and from spontaneous labour to a state-organised legal process. According to the data, at the end of 2023 Uzbekistan had just over 2 million labour migrants abroad; of these about 1.2 million (around 60%) were in Russia. That figure fell to about 1.35 million by the end of 2024 (a drop of roughly 34%), with the number in Russia falling to about 698,000.

Russia's dominance and why the shift began

For a long time Russia was almost the only destination. The 2014–2015 rouble crisis (Western sanctions, the oil-price collapse and a double devaluation of the rouble) cut both migrant numbers and the hard-currency value of remittances; migration to Russia fell about 15.6% in 2015. The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020–2021 closed borders and left over a million Uzbeks stranded in Russia. The post-2022 climate (war, fear of mobilisation, tighter Russian rules) accelerated departures — in January–October 2024 alone about 115,000 people returned home.

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The widening of destinations

South Korea: Uzbekistan has been a partner country in Korea's Employment Permit System (EPS) since 2006, receiving annual sector quotas; at the end of 2023 there were about 68,100 Uzbeks there. Turkey: a major destination, with roughly 114,000–120,000 people in 2023. Germany/Europe: Germany and Uzbekistan signed a comprehensive migration and mobility partnership in Samarkand on 16 September 2024, easing entry for skilled workers (especially in healthcare). Japan: on 17 December 2019 an agreement under Japan's Specified Skilled Worker programme opened 14 industries to Uzbek workers. The Gulf states (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar): workers are sent through organised programmes in construction and services.

State-organised migration

Reforms after 2016 turned migration into a state-supervised legal system. In 2018 the Agency for External Labour Migration was created under the Ministry of Employment; that year Uzbekistan joined the International Organization for Migration (IOM). A fund to protect migrants' rights was set up, pre-departure vocational and language training was introduced, representative offices were opened abroad, and subsidised loans for legal migration were introduced. As a result, the number of workers placed through organised channels rose from 38,400 in 2023 to 161,800 in 2024.

Remittances

According to the World Bank, remittances to Uzbekistan reached about US$16.1 billion in 2023 (around 17.8% of GDP) — slightly below the roughly US$16.7 billion (~21%) of 2022. Russia's share fell from about 87% in 2022 to about 78% in 2023 but remained the largest. By estimates, without remittances the poverty rate would be 16.8% rather than 9.6%. In January–October 2024, remittances from South Korea rose about 70%, exceeding US$450 million.

Return and reintegration

Another mark of the fourth wave is the rise in return migration. The Agency and the protection fund also handle reintegration of returnees, legal and social protection, and repatriation of migrants in difficulty. In January–October 2024 alone about 115,000 people returned.

The overall picture

The fourth wave has thus turned Uzbek migration from dependence on one country into a multi-destination, partly skills-based and state-regulated process. Russia remains the single largest destination, but the shares of South Korea, Turkey, Europe, the Gulf and Japan are growing.