Karachaganak Halts for Maintenance: Kazakh Output to Fall by up to 450,000 Tonnes

Karachaganak, one of Kazakhstan's three largest oil and gas fields, entered planned maintenance on 7 September 2026. The shutdown runs until 1 October.

According to The Times of Central Asia, output is expected to fall by 400,000–450,000 tonnes during the works.

The annual plan was already cut

Kazakhstan lowered its 2026 oil production plan from 98 million to 96 million tonnes because of attacks on Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) infrastructure.

The losses in production from the attacks on CPC will amount to 3.5 million tonnes.

— Yerlan Akkenzhenov, Energy Minister of Kazakhstan (September 2026)

The attacks were recorded in January, June and July.

By the numbers

• Karachaganak maintenance: 7 September – 1 October 2026
• Output reduction from maintenance: 400,000–450,000 tonnes
• Karachaganak's maintained annual level: 11–12 million tonnes
• Revised 2026 national target: 96 million tonnes (from 98 million)
• Original projection: 100.5 million tonnes
• Losses from CPC attacks: 3.5 million tonnes
• CPC capacity: 72.5 million tonnes a year
• Share of Kazakh exports via CPC: more than 80%

Exports

CPC loadings averaged around 1.6 million barrels per day in August, a 22% rebound. Around 1.5 million bpd is expected for September.

The energy minister said there was no full-scale alternative to CPC for export capacity, although some oil can be rerouted via other pipelines.

The Tengiz factor

After the July incident national output fell by about 21%. Production at Tengiz dropped from 925,000 to 406,000 barrels per day — a fall of 56%.

The March statement

According to the economic development plan, oil production in 2026 was expected to reach 100.5 million tons. However, due to events at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, attacks on CPC infrastructure and fires at Tengiz, production is likely to be in the range of 96-98 million tons.

— Yerlan Akkenzhenov, Energy Minister of Kazakhstan (The Times of Central Asia, 12.03.2026)

Current position

According to Trend, the 96-million-tonne forecast was announced on 14 September at a meeting of the headquarters for ensuring economic growth chaired by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin.

The oil and gas sector is seeing a gradual recovery in oil production. The physical volume index (PVI) for eight months stood at 91.6%, with 61.7 million tons of oil produced, compared with 91.1% and 53.2 million tons in January-July 2026.

— Statement by the Government of Kazakhstan (Trend, 14.09.2026)

Context

Karachaganak's target annual output level is 11–12 million tonnes. Work continues on commissioning a sixth raw-gas reinjection compressor at the field.

Oil exports are among the main sources of budget revenue and foreign currency for Kazakhstan, so the shutdown of a single field measurably affects annual figures.