Is the Amu Darya drying up? The Water Ministry rejects the claims
The ministry rejected social-media claims, saying that on 9 October the level at the Termez station was 27 cm higher than a year earlier and that the decline is seasonal.
Uzbekistan's Ministry of Water Resources has rejected claims circulating on social media that the Amu Darya is drying up. The ministry said water continues to flow through the river, although at some points the discharge is lower than a year ago.
What the numbers say
On 9 October, at the Termez hydrological station where the river enters Uzbekistan, the water level was 239 cm — 27 cm higher than at the same time in 2025. Downstream, at the Kerki station, discharge was 499 m³/s, about 11% (63 m³/s) lower than a year earlier. The Nurek reservoir in Tajikistan currently holds 10.54 bln m³ of water, with inflow of 408 m³/s and outflow of 320 m³/s.
Why the decline is happening
The ministry stressed that the drop in river levels and discharge in September and October is part of the seasonal hydrological cycle. Once the growing season ends, water reserves accumulate in reservoirs to meet demand in the following season — a natural process that repeats every year.
“Declines in river levels and discharge in September and October are part of the seasonal hydrological cycle; after the growing season, reserves are accumulated in reservoirs for the following season,” the ministry said.
Where the real risk lies
At the same time, the region's water problem remains serious. Water Resources Minister Shavkat Khamraev warned in March this year that Afghanistan's withdrawals from the Amu Darya via the Qosh Tepa canal could pose a risk in future. The UN Development Programme notes that in dry years insufficient water reaches the Amu Darya delta in Karakalpakstan.
Why it matters
The Amu Darya is vital for Uzbekistan and the whole region: it supplies agriculture, drinking water and the Aral Sea basin. Any news about the river spreads fast among the public — and the ministry is urging people to separate facts from social-media panic.
