Uzbekistan Developing an “Adaptive Social Protection” Strategy With the World Bank and UNICEF

On Sept. 4, 2026, representatives of Uzbekistan's Ministry of Economy, the World Bank and UNICEF held a discussion on developing an “adaptive social protection” strategy. Deputy Economy Minister Otabek Fazilkarimov, representatives of the National Agency for Social Protection and international consultants took part in the talks.

The substance of the concept

Adaptive social protection is an approach that allows the social assistance system to be expanded rapidly in response to a shock, rather than operating on the basis of a fixed, predetermined list. Its central idea is that when a natural disaster, drought or economic crisis occurs, the assistance system starts up immediately through existing infrastructure instead of assembling a new database from scratch.

The discussion examined measures to strengthen households' resilience to various shocks, improve mechanisms for delivering social assistance quickly, and enhance coordination among state bodies.

Next stages

• Holding consultations with stakeholders
• Studying international practice
• Identifying priority risk areas for Uzbekistan
• Assessing risks related to climate and emergency situations

Why climate risks specifically

The summer of 2026 was recorded as the second-hottest in Uzbekistan's observational history. At the regional level, water scarcity is becoming a systemic problem: international reports indicate that the volume of Central Asia's glaciers has shrunk by roughly 30 percent compared with the last century.

A UN report on global drought identified Central Asia as one of the most vulnerable regions. Severe droughts that once recurred once a decade have been observed far more frequently since the 2000s.

According to projections, drought-related losses could reach 1.3 percent of the region's gross domestic product a year by 2050.

The social protection system: background

Uzbekistan has restructured its social protection sector in recent years: a separate National Agency for Social Protection was created, a unified registry (the “Unified Registry of Social Protection”) was introduced, and benefit types were consolidated.

The International Labour Organization, UNICEF and the World Bank supported these reforms and had prepared joint reports assessing the system.

The link to migration

Social protection is closely tied to labor migration. Against the backdrop of tightening migration rules in Russia, 96,415 Uzbek citizens returned home between Aug. 25 and Sept. 5, 2026; labor migration fell 13.2 percent compared with a year earlier.

Reintegrating returning citizens into the labor market and supporting their families places an additional burden on the social protection system.

The status of the document

The structure of the social protection system

Uzbekistan's social protection system has been restructured in recent years. A separate National Agency for Social Protection was created, consolidating powers previously distributed among various ministries.

The system's main instrument is the “Unified Registry of Social Protection.” It holds information about assistance recipients in a single database and links the various types of benefits.

Benefit types include material assistance for low-income families, child allowances and payments for people with disabilities.

How an adaptive system works

Adaptive social protection combines three elements: a baseline database, predetermined activation criteria and a ready source of financing.

When a shock occurs, the system does not spend time compiling a new list: it uses the existing database to expand assistance temporarily. This approach has been tested in international practice in the context of natural disasters and economic crises.

Activation criteria are generally tied to measurable indicators — for example, precipitation levels, temperature readings or a price index.

Climate risks

The summer of 2026 was recorded as the second-hottest in Uzbekistan's observational history. High temperatures have a direct effect on agricultural yields and water consumption.

A UN report on global drought identified Central Asia as one of the most vulnerable regions. Severe droughts that once recurred once a decade have been observed far more frequently since the 2000s.

International reports indicate that the volume of the region's glaciers has shrunk by roughly 30 percent compared with the last century. According to projections, drought-related losses could reach 1.3 percent of the region's gross domestic product a year by 2050.

The migration factor

Social protection is closely tied to labor migration. Against the backdrop of tightening migration rules in Russia, 96,415 Uzbek citizens returned home between Aug. 25 and Sept. 5, 2026.

According to the Migration Agency, 6,413 inquiries were received over those ten days and 5,467 citizens were given practical assistance.

Reintegrating returning citizens into the labor market places an additional burden on the social protection system: it requires not only benefits but also retraining and employment programs.

International partners

The World Bank and UNICEF are taking part in developing the strategy. These organizations had previously prepared a joint report with the International Labour Organization assessing Uzbekistan's social protection system.

The involvement of international institutions generally brings two things: the experience of other countries and technical expertise. At the same time, consultations with national institutions serve to align the document with domestic priorities.

The budget dimension

The essential condition for an adaptive system is a reserve fund allocated in advance or a rapid financing mechanism. Otherwise, assistance is delayed even when the database is ready.

The final text of the strategy, its funding sources and implementation timelines have not yet been announced.

The poverty reduction program

Uzbekistan has been implementing a separate poverty reduction program in recent years. It includes a mechanism for identifying families in need through the “iron notebook” and similar lists.

In addition to material assistance, the program applies measures such as vocational training, microcredits and support for household plots.

The adaptive system is seen as an additional layer on top of this infrastructure: existing lists could serve as the basis for rapid expansion when a shock occurs.

The economic backdrop

In the first seven months of 2026, retail trade in Uzbekistan grew 20.2 percent and market services 16.7 percent. The consumer price index stood at 103.2 percent relative to December 2025.

The Ministry of Economy forecasts average inflation of 6.5 percent and unemployment of 4.5 percent for the year.

With relatively low inflation and high growth, pressure on the social protection system is lower; climate and external shocks, however, can change that picture quickly.

Other experiences in the region

Kyrgyzstan announced an $850 million climate adaptation plan in September 2026, setting out measures for water infrastructure and adapting agriculture.

In Kazakhstan, the social payments system is managed through digital platforms, and its databases are linked to tax and employment services.

The strategy is at the development stage for now. Its final text, funding sources and implementation timelines have not been announced.