Uzbekistan's Central Bank raises its 2026 inflation forecast to 7%
At its November 4 meeting the Central Bank raised its end-2026 inflation forecast from 6.5% to about 7% and kept the key rate at 14%.
At its Board meeting on November 4, 2026, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan raised its end-of-year inflation forecast from 6.5% to about 7%. At the same time the key (policy) rate was left unchanged at 14% — the level maintained since March 2025.
Why the forecast rose
According to the bank, the upward revision was driven by strong domestic demand, risks related to energy prices, and planned increases in utility tariffs — specifically heating and hot water. The bank considers it necessary to keep monetary policy tight.
Target and next steps
The Central Bank maintains its goal of bringing inflation down to 5% by the end of 2027. Bank officials said that if inflation falls to the target level and inflation expectations keep declining, there may be an opportunity in 2027–2029 to cut the key rate below 10% — into single digits.
Current indicators
According to Kun.uz, annual inflation stood at 6.4% in September 2026. The 2026 economic growth forecast was improved to about 8%. The next rate-setting meeting is scheduled for December 16.
