Uzbekistan's Economy Over Seven Months: Retail Trade Up 20.2 Percent, Market Services Up 16.7 Percent
According to statistical data, consumer demand and the services sector were the main sources of growth. The number of operating enterprises passed 509,800.
Uzbekistan's economic indicators for January–July 2026 have been published. According to the data, the main sources of growth were consumer activity, the services sector and infrastructure industries.
Growth by sector
- Retail trade: +20.2%
- Market services: +16.7%
- Construction: +12.9%
- Foreign trade: +8.1%
- Industrial output: +7.9%
The 20.2 percent growth in retail trade was the highest among the indicators. Economists attribute it to rising real incomes, the expansion of consumer lending and the development of digital payment systems.
Prices
The consumer price index stood at 103.2 percent relative to December 2025 — meaning prices rose roughly 3.2 percent over seven months.
The Ministry of Economy forecasts average inflation of 6.5 percent for the whole of 2026; this is below the earlier forecast of 7 percent. The unemployment rate is expected to be around 4.5 percent.
Number of enterprises
As of Aug. 1, 2026, the number of operating enterprises and organizations in the country passed 509,800 (excluding farms and dekhkan holdings).
The annual forecast
In July 2026, the government raised its annual economic growth forecast to 8.1 percent. Nominal gross domestic product is expected to reach roughly $180 billion by year's end.
GDP growth was 8.7 percent in the first quarter of 2026.
On the composition of growth
Growth driven by consumption and construction produces high figures in the short term, but its sustainability depends on several factors: credit quality, import volumes and growth in export earnings.
Remittances from abroad remain one of the important sources of consumer demand: $3.8 billion in transfers came into Uzbekistan in the first quarter of 2026, 13 percent more than a year earlier.
At the same time, tightening migration rules in Russia may put pressure on this flow: entries into Russia for work purposes by citizens of Central Asian states fell 15 percent in the first half of 2026.
The investment backdrop
The country announced several major economic initiatives over the course of 2026: the Tashkent International Financial Centre was established, $8 billion in state assets was added to the privatization list, and 6.7 GW of new capacity was planned for the energy sector by year's end.
A portfolio of 75 projects worth $12 billion was agreed with Japan, and 13 documents were signed with South Korea.
A note
Reading the sources of growth
The high growth in retail trade and market services indicates strong consumer demand. Economists attribute this to three factors: rising real incomes, the expansion of consumer lending and the development of digital payment systems.
Growth driven by consumer lending produces high figures in the short term, but it can lead to a rising debt burden. For that reason, central banks generally monitor household debt levels separately.
The 12.9 percent growth in construction may be linked to state infrastructure programs and activity in the housing market.
Industry and foreign trade
Industrial output growth of 7.9 percent is below the overall figure. This indicates that growth in the economy is being generated mainly by services and trade.
Foreign trade grew 8.1 percent. The country's largest trading partner is China; turnover reached $9.5 billion in January–June 2026. Russia follows with $7 billion and Kazakhstan with $2.8 billion.
Gold, natural gas, textiles, fruits and vegetables, and copper hold significant places in the export mix.
Inflation dynamics
The consumer price index stood at 103.2 percent relative to December 2025, meaning prices rose roughly 3.2 percent over seven months.
The Ministry of Economy forecasts average inflation of 6.5 percent for the year; this is below the earlier forecast of 7 percent. By comparison, annual inflation in Kyrgyzstan remained above 11 percent.
The relatively low inflation is attributed to monetary policy and domestic price regulation measures. The phased liberalization of energy tariffs, however, could create additional pressure in later periods.
The business environment
As of Aug. 1, 2026, the number of operating enterprises and organizations in the country passed 509,800. Farms and dekhkan holdings are not included in this figure.
Growth in the number of enterprises is generally viewed as an indicator of entrepreneurial activity, but it does not show the difference between newly registered enterprises and those actually operating.
Remittances
Remittances from abroad remain one of the important sources of consumer demand. In the first quarter of 2026, $3.8 billion in transfers crossed the border into Uzbekistan, 13 percent more than a year earlier.
Russia's share of total transfers fell from 77.6 percent to 72.4 percent — a sign that sources of income are gradually diversifying.
At the same time, tightening migration rules in Russia may put pressure on this flow: entries into Russia for work purposes by citizens of Central Asian states fell 15 percent in the first half of 2026.
The annual forecast
In July 2026, the government raised its annual economic growth forecast to 8.1 percent. Nominal gross domestic product is expected to reach roughly $180 billion by year's end.
GDP growth was 8.7 percent in the first quarter of 2026.
Investment initiatives
The country announced several major economic initiatives over the course of 2026. In July, the constitutional law on the Tashkent International Financial Centre was signed; the center provides for a special regime based on English law and long-term tax incentives.
On Sept. 8, a plan to put $8 billion in state assets up for sale was announced; the list included Turonbank, the International Business Center and Uzexpocentre.
In energy, 6.7 GW of new capacity is planned by year's end; it includes 2.8 GW of solar and 470 MW of wind capacity.
International cooperation
On Sept. 11, the 18th meeting of the Uzbekistan–Japan economic cooperation committees was held in Tashkent; a portfolio of 75 projects worth $12 billion was presented there.
From Sept. 13 to 16, the president made a state visit to South Korea; 13 documents were signed in Seoul.
And on Sept. 8, a strategic partnership was established with Serbia in Belgrade and 20 documents were signed.
The currency regime
It was announced that, starting Sept. 15, the practice of setting and publishing the exchange rate on the domestic currency market would be refined.
The exchange rate regime is an important indicator for the economy: it affects import prices, export competitiveness and the soum value of remittances.
Reading the statistics
The figures cited are interim statistics and may be revised at the end of the year. National statistical agencies typically refine data several times.
Percentage growth also depends on the base year: figures calculated from a low base may appear high, while the change in absolute volume may well be small.
The figures cited are interim statistics and may be revised at the end of the year. Percentage growth also depends on the base year, and figures calculated from a low base may appear high.