Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Move From Trade to Production Chains: $2.8 Billion in Half a Year

Trade turnover between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan reached $2.8 billion in the first half of 2026. According to Uzbekistan's National Statistics Committee, Kazakhstan ranked third in the country's foreign trade in January–June — after China ($9.5 billion) and Russia ($7 billion).

For 2025 as a whole, bilateral trade amounted to $4.8 billion, an increase of 16.2 percent over the previous year.

How the export mix has changed

The most notable change is in the structure of exports. In 2017, raw materials made up 65.3 percent of Kazakhstan's exports to Uzbekistan; by 2025 that figure had fallen to 35.5 percent. Over the same period, the share of finished goods grew from 3.4 percent to 20.5 percent.

Trade volume in January–May 2026 amounted to $2.3 billion — 37.2 percent more than in the same period of 2025. Kazakh exports rose 39.5 percent, approaching $2.1 billion.

Wheat is the largest item

Wheat remains the main item in Kazakhstan's exports to Uzbekistan: its volume amounted to $571.6 million, or roughly 27 percent of total exports.

Uzbekistan, for its part, supplies fruits and vegetables, textiles, construction materials and chemical products.

• Trade (January–June 2026): $2.8 billion
• Trade (2025 total): $4.8 billion, +16.2%
• Kazakh exports (January–May 2026): ~$2.1 billion, +39.5%
• Wheat exports: $571.6 million (27%)
• Joint projects: 80, ~$1.8 billion
• Investment and trade road map: $7.8 billion

The production chain concept

Analysts describe the two countries' main task as a shift from “trading across the border” to “producing together across the border.” In this approach, different stages of a product are carried out in the two countries and the finished goods are sold on third markets.

Kazakhstan's export potential is cited in metallurgy, machine building, petrochemicals, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, transport equipment and construction materials. The two countries are currently carrying out 80 joint projects with a total value of more than $1.8 billion.

Diversification is extremely important, because GDP cannot be increased simply by mechanically raising raw-material exports.

— Farkhad Kasenov, head of the A+ Analytics research center (The Astana Times)

Infrastructure

Growing trade is putting pressure on border crossing points. The two countries are reconstructing the Gishtkuprik crossing (Zhibek Zholy, Chernyayevka); once the work is complete, its daily capacity is expected to rise from 30,000 to 70,000 people and to handle more than 2,000 cars a day.

A new line is also being built on the rail route; according to Kazakhstan, the project is valued at $545 million and is aimed at reducing congestion at the Saryagash station.

Third markets

Over the course of 2026, the two countries also announced a joint search for new export markets; the Syrian and Iraqi markets were among those discussed.

Constraints

The structure of the two economies

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are the largest economies in Central Asia, but their structures differ. Kazakhstan has a smaller population but higher gross domestic product per capita; oil and gas and mining dominate its economy.

Uzbekistan ranks first in the region by population, and agriculture, textiles, mining and services hold significant places in its economy.

This difference makes the two countries complementary partners: Kazakhstan supplies grain and industrial goods, while Uzbekistan exports fruits and vegetables, textiles and construction materials.

The wheat trade

Wheat remains the largest item in Kazakhstan's exports to Uzbekistan: its volume amounted to $571.6 million, or roughly 27 percent of total exports.

Kazakhstan is one of the world's major wheat exporters. Uzbekistan covers part of its own needs through imports.

In recent years, Kazakhstan has been encouraging a shift from grain exports to exports of flour and other processed products — part of a policy of raising value added.

Border infrastructure

The border between the two countries is more than 2,000 kilometers long. The busiest crossing point is Gishtkuprik near Tashkent (known in Kazakh as Zhibek Zholy and, in the Soviet period, as Chernyayevka).

The crossing was closed for reconstruction on Feb. 5, 2025. Once the work is complete, its daily capacity is expected to rise from 30,000 to 70,000 people and to handle more than 2,000 cars a day.

The new complex includes two passenger terminals with a combined area of 10,000 square meters.

The railway project

A new railway line is being built between the two countries; its length is given as 152 kilometers. According to Kazakhstan, the project is valued at $545 million.

The line is intended to redistribute freight flows on the existing Saryagash–Tashkent route and to reduce congestion at the Saryagash station.

Third markets

In August 2026, the two countries jointly discussed opportunities to enter the Syrian and Iraqi markets. Such cooperation allows exporters to share logistics costs and assemble larger consignments.

In September 2026, Uzbekistan appointed its first-ever ambassador to Syria — an indicator of diplomatic activity along this track.

Payment infrastructure

Growing trade volumes also require integrating payment systems. Kazakhstan is working to introduce cross-border QR payments with 11 countries; Uzbekistan is on the list.

Uzbekistan's Central Bank, for its part, is discussing the possibility of integrating its unified QR system with international payment ecosystems.

On Sept. 7, 2026, a pilot project began in Uzbekistan for the HUMO stablecoin pegged to the soum; for now it is intended only for domestic payments.

Reading the data

In trade statistics, value differs from physical volume: when prices change, growth in value may not reflect growth in volume.

The $1.8 billion in the joint project portfolio, meanwhile, is presented as the value of projects under way; no detailed report on their degree of completion has been published.

Examples of industrial cooperation

Joint projects between the two countries are cited in automotive components, construction materials, chemical products and agro-industry.

In the “production across the border” model, different stages of a product are carried out in the two countries. This approach is widespread in Europe and Southeast Asia but is relatively new in Central Asia.

Obstacles

Practical obstacles cited include differences in technical regulations, certification procedures and transport costs. Kazakhstan is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union while Uzbekistan holds observer status — creating a difference in customs regimes for the two countries.

For that reason, the need to coordinate regulatory matters grows along with the volume of trade.

Part of the growth in trade may be tied to price factors — in the statistics, value differs from physical volume. In addition, the $1.8 billion in the joint project portfolio is presented as the value of projects under way; no detailed report on their degree of completion has been published.